FTDNA Scottish Y-DNA Project

Mark Elliott, how were you able to determine you are likely related to the MacDonald of MacDonald of Islay? The three MacDonald matches you showed on another thread….one being 0/37 match which is good, however the individual is R-M269 which is not of the Clan Donald Chiefly line. As that individual is in the R1B Haplogroup, he would not share a direct common paternal ancestor with the Clan Donald Chiefly line until about 25,000 +/- years ago.

Closer related to the ones which are off 2 in 25 markers, which have likely links to the name MacDonald going back 25 years. The closer link of 1 in ten is to a McDonald not MacDonald. The MacConnell, and MacCall becoming McConnell, and McCall/McCaul have relative Co Fermanagh. Armagh, and Tyrone, Ulster relations, and McDonald also shows Tyrone, but not MacDonald which I feel you are write about the many thousands of years. These Mac- Catholic eventually became Protestant Mc-, in migration to America, seems to show by The People of the British Isles study Co Tyrone, Down, and Armagh. When you flip a coin once the chances are one out of two to getting a heads. Flip it twice it is 2 out of 2. with getting a McConnell of Ulster it is about 3 out of four, which is about the odds of getting a McCall of Ulster for 2 markers off 25 in TIP. For a McDonald of Ulster about 3 out of 4. But in sumation it is 3+3+3/4 =9/4. With the surname McConnell found with Ellot(t) in the Tyrone musters of 1610 and 1630, and McCall found with Ellot of Sir John Hamilton of Fewes, Armagh, Ulster and a McCall found there also in the 1630 muster odds are extremely high I am descended from MacDonald names with are in the family of McDonald, McConnell, and McCall/McCaul, in Tyrone and Armagh of a brother to Daniel Elliott/Ellot of Co Fermanagh County. The border Armstrong, Elliott, and Buccleuch Scott are Anglican-Episcopalian, which evoloved into John Westley’s Methodists in Co Maguire which became Fermanagh. Supported Charles II, many sent as indentured slaves according to today’s Tories which may ancestery fought in the American Revolution. The Union Jack for Armstrong, Elliott, and Nixon, is a flag of border genocide and extermination. https://gorrenberry.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SELLING-SCOTS-AS-SLAVES-IS-FUNNY-TO-THE-TORIES-2.mp4?_=1 My family Hamiltonian Roylists, speaking a Scottish dialect of today’s English went to the English Colony of Massachussetts. Where do you think the Scottish Gaelic Mac- also fighting for Charles II, in the Cromwellian Civil War went to? https://gorrenberry.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/BARBADOED.mp4?_=3

Mark Elliott, it sounds like you were have not determined any connection to the MacDonald of MacDonald of Islay. PS- your statement ‘These Mac- Catholic eventually became Protestant Mc-“ is incorrect there is no difference between Mc and Mac (aside from an “a”). https://www.saltscapes.com/roots-folks/2251-the-case-of-mc-and-mac.html https://www.tribstar.com/community/be-aware-of-patronymic-prefixes-when-researching/article_acd5184e-81c0-51b4-925d-9cc1a0814f80.html

Link likely through Co Tyrone Ulster, McConnell, Y-DNA showing both Ireland and Scotland. Tyrone, 1610 show Ellott, and M’Connell, 1630 shows Ellot, and McConnell. https://named.publicprofiler.org/ shows MacConnell Islay link, and PoBI shows link between Islay and Tyrone. https://peopleofthebritishisles.web.ox.ac.uk/population-genetics. Know you feel that there is not difference between Mac and Mc but try MacLeod, and McLeod https://www.google.com/maps/place/Trump+International+Golf+Links+Aberdeen/@57.1715925,-2.1447781,10z/ Note: Donald Trump’s mother a MacLeod. Need UK ‘hotspot’ distribution program. https://named.publicprofiler.org/, know you are a genealogist you should be confident in mapping, and with surname distribution mapping. Besides the name migrating as McLeod to America, it migrated to where Donald Trump built his golf course in Scotland, as McLeod. Donald Trump’s mother: From a Scottish island to New York’s …https://www.bbc.com › news › uk-scotland-38648877 Jan 19, 2017 — Donald Trump’s mother, Mary Anne MacLeod, was born and brought up on the Hebridean island of Lewis but emigrated to New York to live a very … Just showing tactics and techniques to help people find their family. People do not have to use what is suggested, and genealogists know this, but one looking for family is willing to try most anything, but if not tried it can not be utilized by that individual as a technique for family finding. There needs to be more searching by families, only pseudo scientist, and genealogists, those of ‘status quo’ history trying to regiment people under the same historical DNA would be willing to question an individuals search for genetic family. Historians have a tendency to try to quince, science by anti-scientific silencing and censoring, where in Y-DNA no two people are exactly the same so it is beneficial to express differences, then to be in agreement. The most likely one to be correct on the Y-DNA is the individual which carries it.

Without commenting on anything else you said, I feel like a little lesson in probability and statistics is in order. “When you flip a coin once the chances are one out of two to getting a heads. Flip it twice it is 2 out of 2.” This is not true. When you flip a coin once the probability of getting a heads is 1/2. When you flip a coin a second time, the probability of getting a heads is 1/2. When you flip it a third time, still 1/2. And so on. Each flip is an independent test with its own probability of heads or tails. Also, in your other example, you added unrelated probabilities, a la “But in sumation it is 3+3+3/4 =9/4.” Probability is always a number between 0 and 1. If you have a probability greater than 1 you have done something wrong. In your example, I assume you were trying to measure the probability of getting at least one of your outcomes, each of which you asserted had an independent probability of 3/4. If you wanted to know the true probability of that you would have to add up all of the probabilities of each different outcome (e.g., McConnell of Ulster = Y / McCall of Ulster = Y / McDonald of Ulster = Y, Y/Y/N, Y/N/Y, Y/N/N, and so on), or in this simple case you could simply subtract from one the probability that none of your cases was true. Which would be 1 – (1-3/4)*(1-3/4)*(1-3/4) = 0.984375.

In two flips the chance of getting a heads is two out of two. Binary lets take the first month with 31 days whether Jan or colonial Mar. Lets say you flip a heads for yourself on the first day, and call heads a 1, now what is the likelihood, that you will not flip a head but all tails for the next 30 days. is one is 1000000000000000000000000000000, or less then a one in a billion base 10. The TIP calculator is for 30 years a generation, where if on does not express the zero as being significant, it is 30+/-5 years so the answers are not correct unless to one significant figure not four. Like taking measurement off of triangular, and not the baseline meridian monument near the Family History Library, then putting your answer to the nearest hundredth of a foot. https://elwald.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Triangulation-off-and-Angel-to-Base-and-Meridian-survey.-1024×386.jpg This is considered by me remedial math. https://elwald.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Photo-Radar-SP-2011000660.jpg Star Valley, AZ no longer has photo radar, least to say. Living in New Mexico but certified to instruct math in Arizona. Elliot have a 29th chief. At 29 generations, 12, 25, and 37 rank equally. The I-M253 Vikings show they still can have migration in the British Isles. https://elwald.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Viking-PoBI-29-generations.png The Elliot Clan by Newcastleton Primary School | Scots Language Project 2018 https://youtu.be/y0LvU-EISTU Ronald Yule. Please do not listen to the end part. Think the chief may think of me as a wanted vagabond. It is alright is if you do not believe me on the math. I go by measurement you may not. 0.984375 note this indicates error in sig figs.

So you’re saying it’s impossible to flip a coin twice and get tails both times? Interesting.

By the way, there is no “error in sig figs” when each figure (digit) is significant (non-zero). The formula I gave was correct, and the result was precise. I’ll admit there is something to your logic. It’s just that you can’t seem to express it properly. It is true that the probability of successive negative (tails) outcomes tends toward zero. While I am absolutely correct that the probability of each individual flip of a coin is 1/2 for either heads or tails, the probability of getting tails twice in a row is (1/2)*(1/2) = 1/4. Three times in a row is (1/2)^3 = 1/8. 31 times in a row is (1/2)^31. The probability of getting heads at least once in two attempts is 3/4. Not “two out of two” but “three out of four.”

Thanks for that Andrew. I knew Mark’s math was off kilter but didn’t have the patience to correct him.

Errors are made in math it is good to have correction, but genealogy with all the sig fig is indicating rocket science, where when someone is Y-DNA related then that some is is Y-DNA related to the descendents of that someone. If the person is a McConnell off 2 in 25 later of a McDonnell later of a McDonald, then MacDonald, down the Y-DNA line then as shown in my Y-DNA am related to McConnell of Co Tyrone Ulster, Ireland, then McDonald off 1 in 12 then MacDonald of Scotland off 2 in 12. One have to think in progressions;